Senior Manager, Risk & Fraud Analytics

Trustly•San Francisco, CA

1d•Hybrid

About The Position

Trustly is hiring a Senior Manager to lead its Risk & Fraud Analytics team within the Portfolio Risk Management organization. The team quantifies the business impact of risk decisions, attributes losses, investigates fraud patterns, forecasts losses, and assesses the loss and approval impact of proposed rule or threshold changes. The role leads loss attribution, loss pattern discovery across return types, return-rate monitoring, recovery strategy, loss forecasting, and merchant collateral sizing. It owns monthly loss reporting and forecasts loss and approval impacts for proposed rules, thresholds, and non-standard deal terms. The role also presents loss performance and forecast variance to the Risk Committee and Finance. This is a hybrid role based in Trustly’s San Francisco or New York hubs. Team members are expected in the office Tuesday through Thursday.

Requirements

At least 8 years of experience in payments, lending, or banking risk and fraud analytics.
At least 3 years of experience managing analysts.
Exceptional analytical judgment, including framing questions, identifying relevant data, and designing analyses.
Fraud investigation experience and ability to guide analysts in hypothesis-setting, pattern discovery across cases, and evidence standards.
Fluency in segmentation, cohort analysis, and pattern detection across large transaction datasets.
Loss forecasting experience with cohort loss emergence, vintage curves, or roll rates, including explaining variance to plan.
Experience owning a loss number used by Finance and commercial teams, including the monthly reporting cycle.
Depth in ACH or card loss economics, including return code families and recovery rates.
Experience quantifying rule or threshold changes before implementation and reporting outcomes afterward.
Ability to present recommendations to a risk committee and explain underlying assumptions.

Nice To Haves

A degree in a quantitative field.
A master's degree or MBA.
Experience with guaranteed payments, credit, or another product where the provider carries the loss.
Exposure to fraud typologies such as first-party misuse, account takeover, and synthetic identity.
Experience with gaming, telecommunications, utilities, insurance, or financial services portfolios.
Python experience for analysis and modeling.
Familiarity with NACHA rules for ACH and Payments Canada rules for EFT.

Responsibilities

Lead the risk and fraud analytics team across loss reporting, investigations, recovery analysis, and loss forecasting.
Attribute losses by return code family, merchant, vertical, rail, guarantee tier, and the rule or score band that allowed the transaction.
Produce monthly loss reports and merchant loss scorecards for risk management and commercial teams.
Quantify the loss avoided and approval-rate cost of proposed rules, thresholds, or non-standard deal terms before implementation, then report actual outcomes against forecasts.
Partner with risk operations to investigate patterns across unauthorized, administrative, and funding-related returns; quantify exposure and share findings with Risk Data Science and Risk Leads.
Forecast portfolio loss against plan and explain variance by merchant, user segment, vertical, rail, and guarantee-tier mix.
Forecast which merchants and segments are approaching return-rate limits, explain the drivers, and support the risk compliance team in responding to banking partners.
Set recovery strategy, including which returns are worth contesting and expected recovery by return code family and merchant.
Provide an independent, data-based view of merchant and segment performance, including how approved merchant cohorts performed against underwriting predictions.
Maintain expected loss rates and cost per decision by merchant, vertical, and guarantee tier.
Present loss performance and forecast variance to the Risk Committee and Finance.