Senior Director – Business Development Forecasting, White Space

Eli Lilly and Company • Us, IN

8d

About The Position

Lilly’s Global Forecasting organization is hiring a senior individual contributor to own business development forecasting for white-space opportunities: therapeutic areas and modalities outside Lilly’s established business units, including rare disease, women’s health, respiratory, ophthalmology, infectious disease, and platform, technology, or novel-modality deals. The role produces objective forecasts and market assessments to inform whether and on what terms Lilly pursues external opportunities. It handles a high volume of concurrent projects, currently around one new project per week, and influences Corporate Business Development, business-unit leadership, and governance forums. The role has no direct reports and reports into Global Forecasting’s business development forecasting leadership.

The forecaster is expected to deliver work at scale using tiered analysis, reusable model archetypes, a governed assumption library, and auditable AI and technology workflows. The role creates forecasts and valuations at a depth appropriate to each decision, from rapid top-down screens to detailed patient-based forecasts and committed forecasts. It builds credible market understanding quickly in unfamiliar therapeutic areas, makes assumptions transparent and reusable, and presents objective, decision-ready assessments of risks, opportunities, and value drivers. The role also supports commercial decision forecasts for internal assets when needed.

The position works cross-functionally with Corporate Business Development, New Product Planning and Commercial, Pricing, Reimbursement & Access, clinical development, medical, LRL, Corporate Finance, and Investment Banking. It applies AI and other analytical tools with human review, while ensuring that the forecaster owns and can defend every material assumption. Business development projects have compressed timelines; domestic or international travel may be required, estimated at 0–10%. Applicants must be authorized to work full-time in the United States; Lilly will not sponsor work authorization or visas for this role.

The anticipated salary range is $166,500–$244,200. Full-time employees are eligible for a company bonus, depending in part on company and individual performance, and a comprehensive benefits program. Benefits include eligibility to participate in a company-sponsored 401(k) and pension, vacation benefits, medical, dental, vision and prescription drug benefits, flexible spending accounts, life insurance and death benefits, certain leave benefits, and well-being benefits.

Requirements

• Bachelor’s degree.
• At least 3 years of professional experience in pharmaceutical or biotech settings performing forecasting or modeling of revenue, volume, or patient outcomes; valuing or assessing assets, products, or transactions; or conducting financial or commercial analysis for business, strategic, or investment decisions.
• At least 3 years of pharmaceutical or biotech industry experience.
• Authorization to work in the United States on a full-time basis; the employer will not sponsor work authorization or visas for this role.
• Ability to generate forecasts and valuations, learn across therapeutic areas, prioritize concurrent projects, use analytical technology while owning assumptions, influence cross-functional partners, communicate clearly, think objectively, and maintain attention to detail.

Nice To Haves

• Demonstrated ability to work with complex, voluminous data and build quantitative models.
• Experience across multiple therapeutic areas or in areas outside Lilly’s core business units, particularly with early-stage or platform assets.
• Experience forecasting or valuing pharmaceutical products for business development, licensing, or M&A.
• MBA or an advanced degree in Business Analytics, Data Science, Finance, Statistics, Epidemiology, or a related quantitative field.
• Demonstrated application of AI and other innovative technologies in analytical work, such as Python, LLM-based workflows, automated data pipelines, or template-driven model generation.
• Knowledge of market data sources and tools, such as IQVIA, claims or EMR data, epidemiology, clinical trial, and deal databases.
• Experience presenting and synthesizing technical information for senior leaders clearly and concisely.
• Effectiveness working in teams, including peer coaching and situational support on shared deliverables.
• Ability to operate amid ambiguity, incomplete information, and shifting priorities.
• Prior forecasting, valuation, consulting, or finance experience within pharma is an advantage; strong data-science or AI tooling skills are helpful but not required.

Responsibilities

• Deliver tiered revenue and volume forecasts and market analyses for external opportunities, ranging from rapid top-down screens to patient-based forecasts with risk-adjusted P&Ls and fully built committed forecasts.
• Carry projects through business development forecasting stage gates and archive the model, assumption log, and thesis memo so the work is auditable and reusable.
• Ensure each model input has a source and owner, and maintain rigorous, objective, transparent assumptions consistent with Lilly’s internal pipeline forecasting.
• Support commercial decision forecasts for internal assets when needed.
• Manage concurrent projects with different analytical depths, timelines, and decision dates; triage incoming work and communicate turnaround expectations.
• Build from and contribute to reusable model archetypes so indications are modeled consistently and early-stage screens can be developed further rather than discarded.
• Maintain and extend a governed assumption library covering epidemiology, treatment architecture, price and gross-to-net bands, analog launch curves, and probability of technical success.
• Run retrospectives after standard and committed projects and feed learnings into templates, standards, and the assumption library.
• Apply large language models, agentic tools, automation, and other technology to workflow steps such as intake briefs, landscape research, assumption drafting, model assembly, numeric reconciliation, and documentation, with human review and acceptance.
• Own and defend material assumptions, particularly probability of technical success, price, and share, rather than relying on AI alone.
• Identify, pilot, and scale tools and methods that improve throughput or predictive quality, and share them across Global Forecasting.
• Align with Corporate Business Development on deal structure, valuation scope, and decision timelines; with New Product Planning and Commercial on positioning and share assumptions; with Pricing, Reimbursement & Access on price, gross-to-net, and access assumptions; with clinical, medical, and LRL on technical success, label, and development timelines; and with Corporate Finance and Investment Banking to hand off and reconcile forecasts.
• Develop market understanding in unfamiliar therapeutic areas using secondary data, syndicated sources, external experts, and AI-assisted research, and document the basis for that understanding.
• Develop and maintain analog, benchmark, and top-down methods for early, platform, and option-style deals where a bottom-up patient funnel is not yet suitable.
• Value platforms and technologies by framing indication-portfolio scenarios, applying probability-weighted option logic, and making value drivers explicit.
• Synthesize analysis into decision-ready materials, including a one-page thesis memo, scenario range, and key assumptions, for business development, business-unit, and governance audiences.
• Present an objective, data-driven view of opportunities, surface risks and upside even when findings challenge the deal team’s prevailing view, and influence senior leaders.
• Travel domestically or internationally for projects when required; estimated travel is 0–10%.

Benefits

• Company bonus, depending in part on company and individual performance.
• Eligibility to participate in a company-sponsored 401(k).
• Pension.
• Vacation benefits.
• Medical, dental, vision, and prescription drug benefits.
• Flexible benefits, including healthcare and/or dependent day care flexible spending accounts.
• Life insurance and death benefits.
• Certain time off and leave of absence benefits.
• Well-being benefits, including employee assistance program, fitness benefits, and employee clubs and activities.

What This Job Offers

• Job Type: Full-time
• Career Level: Senior