Senior Director – Business Development Forecasting, Cardiometabolic Health & Immunology

Eli Lilly and Company•Us, IN

About The Position

Lilly’s Global Forecasting Business Development Forecasting team provides objective forecasts and market assessments to inform decisions about external investment opportunities. This role owns business development forecasting for cardiometabolic health and immunology opportunities, spanning obesity, diabetes, cardiovascular and metabolic disease, dermatology, rheumatology, and gastroenterology, as well as oral and injectable small molecules, peptides, biologics, and novel modalities. This is an introductory leadership role and senior individual-contributor position with no direct reports. The role develops forecasts and opportunity assessments across a high volume of concurrent projects, using tiered analytical depth, reusable model archetypes, a governed assumption library, and auditable AI and other technology. It influences Corporate Business Development, business-unit leaders, and governance forums by clearly explaining the risks and opportunities of external investment. The role reports to the Associate Vice President – Cardiometabolic Health & Immunology Forecasting, who provides therapeutic-area expertise and stage-gate sign-off. It works alongside cardiometabolic health and immunology pipeline forecasters to assess external opportunities consistently with internal assets. The work is fast-paced, with compressed project timelines; domestic or international travel may be required, estimated at 0–10%. The anticipated wage is $166,500–$244,200. Eligible full-time employees may receive a company bonus and participate in a comprehensive benefits program.

Requirements

Bachelor’s degree.
At least 3 years of professional experience in pharmaceutical or biotech settings performing forecasting or modeling of revenue, volume, or patient outcomes; valuing or assessing assets, products, or transactions; or conducting financial or commercial analysis for business, strategic, or investment decisions.
At least 3 years of pharmaceutical or biotech industry experience.
Authorization to work in the United States on a full-time basis; Lilly will not sponsor work authorization or visas for this role.

Nice To Haves

Cardiometabolic health and/or immunology therapeutic-area experience, ideally involving pipeline, pre-launch, or business development assets.
Ability to work with complex, voluminous data and build quantitative models.
Experience forecasting or valuing pharmaceutical products for business development, licensing, or M&A.
M.B.A. or advanced degree in Business Analytics, Data Science, Finance, Statistics, Epidemiology, or a related quantitative field.
Demonstrated application of AI and other innovative technologies in analytical work, such as Python, LLM-based workflows, automated data pipelines, or template-driven model generation.
Knowledge of market data sources and tools, such as IQVIA, claims or EMR data, epidemiology, clinical trial, and deal databases.
Experience presenting and synthesizing technical information clearly and concisely for senior leaders.
Effectiveness working in teams, including peer coaching and situational support on shared deliverables.
Ability to operate amid ambiguity, incomplete information, and shifting priorities.

Responsibilities

Deliver revenue and volume forecasts and market analyses at a depth suited to each decision, from short top-down screens to patient-based forecasts with risk-adjusted P&Ls and fully developed committed forecasts.
Carry projects through forecasting stage gates and archive the model, assumption log, and thesis memo so the work is auditable and reusable.
Ensure every model input has a source and owner, and maintain rigorous, objective, transparent assumptions consistent with internal pipeline forecasts.
Support commercial decision forecasts for internal assets when needed, using the same standards and templates.
Manage concurrent projects with different analytical tiers, timelines, and decision dates; triage incoming work and communicate turnaround expectations.
Build and contribute to reusable model archetypes, ensuring indications are modeled consistently and early-screen models can be extended for deeper analysis.
Maintain and extend the governed assumption library, including epidemiology, treatment architecture, price and gross-to-net bands, analog launch curves, and probability of technical success.
Conduct retrospectives after standard and committed projects and incorporate lessons into templates, standards, and the assumption library.
Apply large language models, agentic tools, and automation to forecasting workflows, with human review and acceptance at every step.
Own and defend material assumptions, including probability of technical success, price, and share; do not rely on AI alone to set them.
Identify, pilot, and scale analytical tools and approaches, including machine learning and other novel methods, and share them across Global Forecasting.
Align with Corporate Business Development on deal structure, valuation scope, and decision timelines.
Work with New Product Planning and Commercial on positioning, placement, investment thesis, and pressure-testing share assumptions.
Obtain and apply price, gross-to-net, and access assumptions from Pricing, Reimbursement & Access.
Align with clinical development, medical, and LRL on probability of technical success, label, and development timelines, connecting clinical scenarios to commercial outcomes.
Hand off forecasts to Corporate Finance and Investment Banking for valuation and deal models, ensuring the numbers reconcile.
Develop and apply knowledge of cardiometabolic and immunology markets, including epidemiology, treatment sequencing, competitive dynamics, payer and channel economics, and gross-to-net economics.
Maintain a current view of the external landscape, including mechanisms, clinical readouts, and competitor deals, and use relevant analogs and competitive scenarios.
Ensure consistency across mechanistically related opportunities and indications, documenting any deliberate differences.
Synthesize findings into decision-ready outputs, including a one-page thesis memo, scenario range, and key assumptions, tailored to business development, business-unit, and governance audiences.
Present an objective, data-driven assessment that identifies risks and opportunities, including when findings challenge the deal team’s prevailing view.
Influence senior leaders in a fast-paced environment where decisions may be made quickly and revisited as diligence develops.

Benefits

Company bonus eligibility, depending in part on company and individual performance.
Eligibility to participate in a company-sponsored 401(k).
Pension.
Vacation benefits.
Eligibility for medical, dental, vision, and prescription drug benefits.
Flexible benefits, including healthcare and/or dependent day care flexible spending accounts.
Life insurance and death benefits.
Certain time-off and leave-of-absence benefits.
Well-being benefits, including an employee assistance program, fitness benefits, and employee clubs and activities.
Employee resource groups open to all employees.