Research Consultant: Lebanon country study, Return Implications for Host Economies

Prosper Global•Lebanon, PA

16h

About The Position

Prosper Global is seeking a locally registered firm to lead the Lebanon country study for “Return Implications for Host Economies,” an initiative with UNDP funded by the Regional Development and Protection Program. The study will examine how Syrian refugee returns since December 2024 affect Lebanon’s labor markets, consumer demand, local services and public finances, and investment. It will use national secondary data and primary research in sectors and localities particularly affected by returns, while distinguishing developments before and after December 2024 and accounting for other influences, including the 2026 conflict, the economic crisis, and declining aid budgets. The consultant will document how Syrians contribute to Lebanon’s economy as workers, consumers, and recipients of public services, and assess how returns are changing these contributions. The research will examine labor-market effects; consumer demand and local markets; local services and public finances; and how businesses and donors are adapting. It will produce country-level recommendations for policy dialogue and contribute to regional recommendations alongside the Jordan and Syria studies. The work is expected to take approximately 20 weeks. The indicative schedule begins on 16 November 2026, with a contractual end date of 30 June 2027. Deliverables include an inception report, a presentation of emerging findings, draft and final Lebanon country reports, inputs to short audience-specific briefs, and final research tools and anonymized data and notes. The consultant reports to the Senior Regional Manager, Prosper Global Crisis Analysis, and works with Prosper Global and UNDP colleagues and the consultants leading the Jordan and Syria studies.

Requirements

At least 7 years of experience in labor or development economics, political economy, or a closely related field, including leading mixed-methods research.
Demonstrated knowledge of Lebanon’s economy and labor market, including regulations governing Syrian employment and the role of informal labor.
Experience conducting key informant interviews and focus group discussions with employers, public authorities, and host and refugee communities.
Experience analyzing secondary data such as labor force and household surveys, VASyR, and market-monitoring data.
Sound knowledge of research ethics, data protection, and conflict-sensitive practice when working with refugees and other at-risk groups.
Excellent analytical and report-writing skills in English, a record of policy-relevant publications, and fluency in Arabic.
Eligible applicants must be firms locally registered in Jordan, Syria, or Lebanon.
Applications must include a technical proposal of no more than five pages, a financial proposal and, where applicable, an itemized field-cost budget, and proof of local registration in Jordan, Syria, or Lebanon.

Nice To Haves

Experience with sub-national economic analysis, employer surveys, or remote-sensing data.
Familiarity with research on refugee economic inclusion and return in Lebanon.
Established networks among employers’ associations, municipalities, and line ministries.

Responsibilities

Review published and ongoing studies on the economic effects of Syrian refugees and returns in Lebanon, identify evidence gaps, avoid duplication, and refine research questions.
Assess data availability for labor, prices and rents, service use, aid flows, and returns, and recommend feasible additional research components.
Finalize the research design, including sampling, locations, sector selection, tools, workplan, and risk-mitigation measures, for approval before fieldwork.
Analyze national secondary data across labor markets, consumer demand, local services and public finances, investment, and policy options.
Conduct at least 20 key informant interviews with relevant employers, business and worker organizations, public authorities, service providers, donors, banks, and UN and NGO actors; the final number and composition will be set in the inception report.
Conduct at least two sector deep-dives, with agriculture and construction expected subject to confirmation at inception, covering employers, workers, and supply chains.
Conduct focus group discussions with host-community workers, Syrians who remain in Lebanon, and employers or small business owners in localities with high concentrations of Syrian refugees; separate groups by gender where needed.
Triangulate findings across sources, distinguish associations from supported causal claims, use UNHCR return figures as broad indicators, and explain the influence of other factors on observed trends.
Apply research ethics, informed consent, conflict sensitivity, data protection, and safeguards for refugees and returnees throughout the research.
Coordinate with the other country-study consultants and Prosper Global to align definitions, tools, and report structure, and contribute to regional findings and recommendations.
Present findings at the validation workshop and incorporate feedback from Prosper Global and UNDP review rounds.
Deliver an inception report, emerging-findings presentation, draft and final country reports, inputs to short briefs, and final research tools and anonymized datasets and notes.