Probabilistic Risk Assessment Analyst-Human Spaceflight (Remote)

ARES Corporation•Centennial, CO

12d•$100,000 - $200,000•Remote

About The Position

ARES Corporation seeks an experienced Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) lead or analyst to support Boeing and United Launch Alliance (ULA) on the Starliner human spaceflight program. The role focuses on quantitative risk assessment of the Starliner crew vehicle and Vulcan launch vehicle, including evaluation of Loss of Crew (LOC), Loss of Mission (LOM), and public risk metrics, and support for FAA launch license applications under 14 CFR Part 450. The selected candidate will perform and/or lead PRA activities across multiple customers, working closely with engineering, systems, safety, and reliability teams. The position requires independently developing and refining probabilistic models, interpreting results for risk-informed decision-making, and clearly communicating technical findings to customers and senior stakeholders with minimal day-to-day oversight. Well-qualified remote candidates will be considered. Candidates local to the Houston or Denver metro area who are willing to work a hybrid schedule are preferred.

Requirements

Bachelor’s degree in Aerospace Engineering, Mechanical Engineering, Systems Engineering, Electrical Engineering, Mathematics, Statistics, or a related technical field.
At least 6 years of professional experience in probabilistic risk assessment, quantitative reliability, or system safety analysis within the aerospace industry.
Demonstrated experience performing PRA or equivalent quantitative risk analysis on complex aerospace systems.
Hands-on proficiency with fault trees, event trees, cut-set analysis, and importance measures.
Experience collecting, analyzing, and applying reliability and failure data; performing uncertainty analysis; and identifying risk drivers for decision support.
Ability to engage engineering teams, extract technical information, and translate design and operational details into probabilistic models.
Strong technical writing and presentation skills, including the ability to explain quantitative risk results and assumptions to customers, management, and cross-functional teams.
Ability to work independently across multiple customer efforts while maintaining technical rigor and accountability.

Nice To Haves

Master’s degree.
Experience with PRA software such as SAPHIRE, CAFTA, RiskSpectrum, or equivalent.
Direct experience supporting human spaceflight programs or crewed vehicle risk assessments, such as Commercial Crew, Starliner, Orion, or Artemis.
Experience with FAA Part 450 flight safety analysis, launch licensing, or range safety probabilistic assessments, including expected casualty, probability of failure, or debris risk.
Familiarity with NASA human-rating processes, Loss of Crew and Loss of Mission metrics, and integration of PRA with system safety documentation.
Experience with Human Reliability Analysis, software risk assessment, or launch abort modeling.
Background supporting commercial launch providers such as ULA or Boeing, or NASA Commercial Crew Program activities.
Knowledge of reliability databases, Bayesian updating, or Monte Carlo methods applied to aerospace systems.
Human spaceflight or launch vehicle experience.

Responsibilities

Independently develop, update, and quantify probabilistic risk models for Starliner and Vulcan systems using fault trees, event trees, and related techniques.
Assess failure scenarios, common-cause failures, and risk drivers contributing to Loss of Crew, Loss of Mission, and public risk metrics.
Perform integrated risk assessments of vehicle systems, abort scenarios, ground and flight operations, and crew-related risks, incorporating reliability data, Human Reliability Analysis where applicable, and epistemic and aleatory uncertainty.
Support FAA Part 450 launch-license flight safety analyses and probability-of-failure assessments, including expected casualty, probability of casualty, conditional expected casualty, debris, and related risk analyses for Vulcan and associated missions.
Conduct analyses consistent with NASA PRA guidance, NPR 8705.5, human-rating requirements, and applicable commercial space and range safety practices.
Collaborate with Boeing, ULA, and other engineering teams to gather design data, failure modes, reliability inputs, and operational assumptions.
Present analysis results, risk drivers, sensitivity studies, and recommendations in technical reviews and customer forums.
Produce PRA reports, model documentation, uncertainty analyses, and risk summaries.
Support integration of PRA with system safety, including hazard analysis and FMEA/FMECA, reliability, and certification activities.