Senior Manager, Loan Forecasting and Finance Analytics

Carvana • Tempe, AZ

1d • Onsite

About The Position

Carvana's Finance team manages Carvana’s lending business, which has grown to become one of the largest auto finance platforms in the United States, and which plays an integral role in supporting industry leading customer experience, growth, and profitability. We're looking for a driven and resourceful Senior Manager to lead a quantitative finance analytics team responsible for building and maintaining complex models, including credit loss and origination forecasting. finance analytics. You will own the models at the center of how Carvana plans and manages its lending business, including loan level cash flow forecasts, CECL reserving, loan origination plans, and unit economic models, among others. You will work cross-functionally with Accounting, Credit, Capital Markets, and Carvana's servicing partners to strengthen forecast accuracy, support monthly and quarterly accounting processes, and identify risks and strategic opportunities across the business. The ideal candidate pairs hands-on loan level modeling and credit loss forecasting expertise with strong quantitative skills and the ability to present complex analysis to senior leaders. A background demonstrating ownership of high profile, cross-functional projects with a focus on creating and leveraging analytics insights is a strong fit.

Requirements

• Bachelor's degree in Economics, Mathematics, Statistics, Engineering, or a related field.
• 8+ years in quantitative finance, credit risk, loss forecasting, or portfolio analytics at a lender, bank, fintech, or other financial institution.
• Hands on experience building loan level forecast models and CECL or allowance reserve models.
• Advanced Python for building and maintaining forecast and reserve models, along with strong SQL skills, and the ability to leverage AI to drive scale and process automation.
• Strong background in defining, creating, and socializing analytics.
• Experience managing cross-functional projects and leading teams.
• Excellent communication and presentation skills, with comfort working alongside executive leadership.
• Must be able to read, write, speak, and understand English.

Nice To Haves

• Experience at an auto lender or other consumer lender.
• Familiarity with ASC 326 (CECL) and ASC 820 fair value measurements.
• Experience running models in production grade Python, including version control and automated data pipelines.
• Experience building credit loss forecasts under multiple macroeconomic scenarios.

Responsibilities

• Own and continuously improve Carvana's loan level forecast model, projecting cash flows, losses, prepayments, and recoveries across the portfolio.
• Maintain and enhance the loan level re-forecast model each cycle, reconcile forecast to actuals, and explain the key drivers of variance to Finance and business leadership.
• Build and maintain the loan origination forecast in partnership with Credit, Capital Markets, and other stakeholders, aligning volume, mix, and pricing assumptions with the operating plan.
• Own the CECL reserve calculation process, including methodology, assumptions, qualitative overlays, and documentation.
• Produce the CECL reserve forecast across planning and stress scenarios, and partner with Accounting and external auditors during monthly and quarterly close.
• Evaluate and recommend updates to reserve assumptions, including credit losses, prepayment rates, recovery rates, and macroeconomic inputs.
• Lead model governance for the forecasting function, including controls, back testing, and audit support.
• Maintain and enhance systems for measuring holistic unit economics used to evaluate profitability and performance across products, channels, credit tiers, and customer segments.
• Develop financial models and executive ready presentations that support strategic initiatives, financing decisions, and executive decision making.
• Other duties as assigned.

Benefits

• Competitive salary and Carvana stock compensation.
• Medical, Dental, and Vision benefits.
• 401K with company match.
• Student loan payments.
• Discounts on vehicles.
• Benefits for your pets.
• A great wellness program to keep you healthy and happy both physically and mentally.
• Access to opportunities to expand your skill set and share your knowledge with others across the organization.

What This Job Offers

• Job Type: Full-time
• Career Level: Senior