Senior Manager, Loan Forecasting and Finance Analytics

Carvana•Tempe, AZ

18h•Onsite

About The Position

Carvana is seeking a Senior Manager to lead a quantitative finance analytics team responsible for building and maintaining complex models, including credit loss and origination forecasts. The role owns models that support planning and management of Carvana’s lending business, including loan-level cash flow forecasts, CECL reserving, loan origination plans, and unit economic models. It works cross-functionally with Accounting, Credit, Capital Markets, and servicing partners to improve forecast accuracy, support monthly and quarterly accounting processes, and identify business risks and strategic opportunities. The position requires hands-on loan-level modeling and credit loss forecasting expertise, strong quantitative skills, and the ability to communicate complex analysis to senior leaders. It is fully on-site Monday through Friday at Carvana’s corporate headquarters in Tempe, Arizona.

Requirements

Bachelor's degree in Economics, Mathematics, Statistics, Engineering, or a related field.
8+ years in quantitative finance, credit risk, loss forecasting, or portfolio analytics at a lender, bank, fintech, or other financial institution.
Hands-on experience building loan-level forecast models and CECL or allowance reserve models.
Advanced Python skills for building and maintaining forecast and reserve models.
Strong SQL skills and ability to leverage AI to drive scale and process automation.
Strong background in defining, creating, and socializing analytics.
Experience managing cross-functional projects and leading teams.
Excellent communication and presentation skills, with comfort working alongside executive leadership.
Must be able to read, write, speak, and understand English.

Nice To Haves

Experience at an auto lender or other consumer lender.
Familiarity with ASC 326 (CECL) and ASC 820 fair value measurements.
Experience running models in production-grade Python, including version control and automated data pipelines.
Experience building credit loss forecasts under multiple macroeconomic scenarios.

Responsibilities

Own and continuously improve the loan-level forecast model, projecting portfolio cash flows, losses, prepayments, and recoveries.
Maintain and enhance the loan-level re-forecast model each cycle, reconcile forecasts to actuals, and explain variance drivers to Finance and business leadership.
Build and maintain the loan origination forecast with Credit, Capital Markets, and other stakeholders, aligning volume, mix, and pricing assumptions with the operating plan.
Own the CECL reserve calculation process, including methodology, assumptions, qualitative overlays, and documentation.
Produce CECL reserve forecasts across planning and stress scenarios, and partner with Accounting and external auditors during monthly and quarterly close.
Evaluate and recommend updates to reserve assumptions, including credit losses, prepayment rates, recovery rates, and macroeconomic inputs.
Lead forecasting model governance, including controls, back testing, and audit support.
Maintain and enhance systems for measuring holistic unit economics across products, channels, credit tiers, and customer segments.
Develop financial models and executive-ready presentations to support strategic initiatives, financing decisions, and executive decision-making.
Perform other duties as assigned.
Lead a quantitative finance analytics team and manage cross-functional projects.