Head of Causal Research (Expression of Interest)

Subconscious•New York City, NY

1d•Onsite

About The Position

This is an exploratory conversation for a planned function, not an immediately funded salaried vacancy or a guaranteed start date. Subconscious is building the intelligence to run the economy, starting with a simulator for business decisions. This role will define what can be learned from interventions in simulated markets and what evidence is needed before those findings inform real decisions. The function will own the causal research agenda, methodological review, scientific standards, and research hiring priorities. It involves working with applied science on customer questions, evaluation on independent measurement, and simulation engineering on faithful implementation. This is a hands-on leadership role where the individual will set the functional roadmap and propose staffing and spending priorities with the founding team. Hiring and budget commitments depend on approved resources; an established team or funded budget is not assumed. The proposed first 90 days after joining include specifying estimands, identification assumptions, population definitions, and decision contexts for priority use cases; designing validation studies against appropriate human evidence, including negative results and tests of transportability; establishing methods for uncertainty, sensitivity analysis, and failure diagnosis that match customer decisions; and prioritizing a research roadmap with explicit hypotheses, expected evidence, and criteria for continuing or stopping an approach. Progress will be judged by reproducible evidence for methodological claims with clearly stated limits, usable methods, informative failures, and better decisions about which questions the product can address, reviewed against predefined study criteria.

Requirements

Led rigorous work in causal inference, econometrics, experimental design, discrete choice, or a closely related field.
Demonstrate original contributions through papers, deployed methods, or independently reviewable research, and explain where conclusions fail.
Ability to lead scientists, collaborate with engineers, and stay hands-on with study design, statistical analysis, and methodological review.
Evidence of judgment, execution, and leadership.
Ability to share an existing research contribution led, explaining the causal question, identifying assumptions, validation strategy, and a result that would have changed the conclusion (without confidential employer or customer materials).
Ability to bring questions about the product, evidence, team, finances, and the authority attached to the role.

Responsibilities

Define what we can learn from interventions in simulated markets, and what evidence is needed before those findings inform real decisions.
Set the research agenda for Subconscious’s causal experimentation methods.
Own the causal research agenda, methodological review, scientific standards, and research hiring priorities.
Work with applied science on customer questions, evaluation on independent measurement, and simulation engineering on faithful implementation.
Set the functional roadmap and propose staffing and spending priorities with the founding team.
Specify the estimands, identification assumptions, population definitions, and decision contexts for priority use cases.
Design validation studies against appropriate human evidence, including negative results and tests of transportability.
Establish methods for uncertainty, sensitivity analysis, and failure diagnosis that match the decisions customers are making.
Prioritize a research roadmap with explicit hypotheses, expected evidence, and criteria for continuing or stopping an approach.