Associate Director Forecasting & Modeling

Merck•North Wales, PA

4h•$142,400 - $224,100•Hybrid

About The Position

The Associate Director, Purchase-Based Forecasting & Modeling is part of the U.S. Market Access Contracting Team within Integrated Account Management (IAM) and reports to the Director, Modeling & Forecasting. The role leads purchase-based forecasting and modeling, including quarterly bottom-up Gross-to-Net (GTN) forecasting across 340B, VA/DoD, Hospital and Specialty GPOs, and other evolving sites of care and purchase-based segments. It partners directly with Customer Managers during each forecast cycle, bringing together customer insights, contracting assumptions, market dynamics, and performance trends. It also serves as a financial modeling subject-matter expert, supporting deal evaluation for in-line and launch brands. The role works across Account Management, Strategy, Revenue Forecasting, GMAX, Finance, Analytics, and external partners to ensure that contracting strategies are reflected in forecasts and deal models. It drives operational excellence through AI, standardization, automation, and continuous improvement. The position is hybrid, based primarily in North Wales, Pennsylvania, with 10% travel. The employee is eligible for an annual bonus and long-term incentive, if applicable.

Requirements

BA/BS degree or equivalent.
Understanding of commercial and market access strategy, including the ability to translate business needs into KPI-tied analytical requirements.
Knowledge of pharma, oncology, rare disease, or U.S. payer/market access.
Experience as a consultative business partner.
Experience generating data-driven insights in market access, payer or commercial analytics, finance, data science, pharma/biotech, or consulting.
Skill in forecast models, scenario analysis, and business cases, with strong quantitative skills.
Proven cross-functional success involving Market Access, Finance, Data Science, Analytics, and Account Management.
Proactive, independent approach; ability to thrive in ambiguity, create structure, and drive execution.
Ability to deliver clear, actionable, data-driven insights and manage stakeholders.
Required skills include accountability, account management, analytics insights, automation, bidding process, brand launches, commercial contract management, contracting strategies, contract management, contract performance, cross-functional leadership, customer focus, demand forecasting, disease awareness, financial analysis, financial forecasting, forecasting models, launch excellence, launch management, market access, market research, relationship management, scenario analysis, stakeholder management, and strategic thinking.

Responsibilities

Lead bottom-up, customer-based purchase forecasting using consistent methods, assumptions, and processes across key classes of trade and contracted products.
Lead the quarterly GTN forecast process with Customer Managers, incorporating customer insights, contracting assumptions, market dynamics, and performance trends.
Partner with Strategy, Finance, Revenue Forecasting, GMAX, and other stakeholders to align GTN, volume, revenue, and market access assumptions and identify drivers, risks, and opportunities.
Develop and maintain statistical forecasts in R1 (Cloud TM1) that reflect customer dynamics, contracting assumptions, and market trends.
Monitor actual versus forecast performance, identify variances, risks, and trends, and apply learnings to future forecast cycles.
Lead purchase-based deal modeling using consistent methods, assumptions, and processes across key classes of trade for contracted products.
Advise Customer Managers as the financial modeling subject-matter expert for VA/DoD, GPO, 340B, LOP, and other site-of-care contracting opportunities for in-line and launch brands.
Enhance launch brand modeling to evaluate VA/DoD, GPO, 340B, LOP, and other purchase-based contracting opportunities consistently.
Incorporate competitive dynamics and competitor contracting assumptions into deal models and forecasts.
Partner with MAPS and payer teams on post-deal analytics, comparing actual contract performance with pre-deal expectations and applying learnings to future modeling, forecasting, and contracting decisions.
Drive operational excellence through AI, standardization, simplification, and automation to improve the accuracy, transparency, scalability, and efficiency of forecasting and modeling processes.
Partner with AI specialists and external partners to automate manual processes and streamline workflows for a growing launch portfolio.
Standardize data inputs, methodologies, processes, and controls across forecasting and deal modeling to improve consistency and reduce risk.
Oversee contractor-led operations to ensure pricing, expense, revenue, and other modeling inputs are accurate and consistently applied.
Coordinate with external partners to maintain accountability and effective execution across forecasting and deal modeling.