23796 - Analyst, Civil and Family Court Forecasting, Analysis Directorate

Ministry of Justice UK•National City, CA

13d•£35,335 - £42,859•Hybrid

About The Position

The Analyst, Civil and Family Court Forecasting is based in the Fee and Fine Forecasting Team within the Civil, Family, OPG & Income Modelling team in the Justice System Modelling Team of the Ministry of Justice Analysis Directorate. The team forecasts Civil and Family court demand and court fee income, as well as criminal fine income, accounting for more than £1.4 billion of MoJ income annually. Income forecasts support departmental budgeting, Spending Reviews and allocations; court demand forecasts help HMCTS analytical and operational teams plan and resource courts. The role offers the opportunity to develop forecasting skills, particularly statistical time-series modelling such as Holt-Winters and ARIMA, alongside R and SQL. With support from senior colleagues, the post holder will update forecasts twice yearly, monitor performance, and review and improve modelling approaches. The post holder will also communicate forecast updates and performance to senior MoJ and HMCTS Finance and Operations stakeholders, explain complex analysis clearly, and collaborate across Data, Analysis and HMCTS Operations to understand court-demand drivers, uncertainty, risks and data limitations. Opportunities include automating data and monitoring processes and improving models to mitigate forecast risks. The role is open to eligible existing Civil Service employees. It is advertised nationally, with office locations and flexible working arrangements discussed with the successful candidate. Hybrid arrangements are available where business needs allow, with at least 60% of working time expected in an office. The position is permanent and full-time by default, with part-time, job-share and flexible patterns also considered.

Requirements

Meet the HEO analytical entry criteria through either a numerate or analytically/statistically/research-focused degree at 2:2 or above (or a higher degree), or significant experience demonstrating data and/or analytical skills outside a part-completed Civil Service degree apprenticeship.
Experience manipulating large, complex datasets.
Experience applying complex analytical techniques to generate insights.
Proficiency in R and Excel.
Ability to combine varied data and insights and draw evidence-based conclusions that inform model development and analysis.
Good written and oral communication and interpersonal skills.
Ability to create clear, impactful visualisations of analytical insights.
Ability to explain data and analytical concepts to technical and non-technical stakeholders, including senior leaders.
Ability to manage stakeholder needs and deliver an organised programme of analysis and modelling.
Ability to collaborate with technical and non-technical colleagues and identify opportunities for analysis and engagement beyond the immediate work area.
Applicants must be currently employed within the Civil Service; eligibility rules also describe qualifying staff from accredited NDPBs for cross-government vacancies.

Nice To Haves

Previous experience of quantitative modelling and/or forecasting, particularly statistical time-series techniques such as Holt-Winters and ARIMA.
Experience using SQL to manipulate large datasets and derive insights.

Responsibilities

Update Civil and Family court demand and income forecasts twice a year and present them to the senior governance group for sign-off.
Monitor forecast performance and produce and disseminate monthly analysis to stakeholders.
Review forecasting techniques and implement improvements to modelling.
Gather and share intelligence about operational and policy changes and other drivers of court demand that may affect forecast precision.
Communicate forecast performance, changes, uncertainty and risks to senior MoJ and HMCTS stakeholders.
Work collaboratively across Data, Analysis and HMCTS Operations to understand operational areas and data limitations.

Benefits

Annual leave of 25 days on appointment, increasing to 30 days after five years’ service.
Option for qualifying staff to buy or sell up to three days of annual leave each year.
Paid public holidays and one privilege day.
Choice of Civil Service pension schemes.
Extensive training and development opportunities and an individual learning and development budget.
Employee-run networks providing advice, support and routes for minority-group views to reach senior management.
Family-friendly policies, including opportunities to work reduced hours or job share.
Access to flexible benefits, voluntary benefits, retail vouchers and discounts.
Paid paternity, adoption and maternity leave.
Free annual sight tests for employees who use computer screens.
Flexible working arrangements, including potential home working, compressed hours, part-time and job-share arrangements, subject to business needs.