Actuary II Forecasting

TX-HHSC-DSHS-DFPS•Austin, TX

4d•$6,000 - $7,600•Hybrid

About The Position

The Actuary II (Forecaster) plays an important role on the Health and Human Services Forecasting Team, with assignments ranging from forecasting to providing critical support of forecasting for various HHS program, including Medicaid Acute/Long-Term Services and Supports, Vendor Drug, Children's Health Insurance Program (CHIP), or Temporary Assistance to Needy Families (TANF). Working with other forecasters and HHS program staff and team members, the Forecaster will perform complex and interesting statistical and research functions with moderate supervision from the Team Lead. The Forecaster is responsible for the initial run of all forecasts from their area and will verify and maintain the integrity of data used in forecasting and reporting for their area. The Forecaster position requires moderate judgment, with moderate latitude to make recommendations on data issues and forecasts. The successful candidate will balance sound actuarial, statistical, and scientific judgment with logical decisions to make recommendations to the team. The Forecasting Team has proven to be successful operating in a hybrid In-Office/Telework environment. The regular schedule is 80% Telework and 20% in-office, subject to temporary adjustment based on work needs. This is an excellent opportunity for someone looking to build their career in a predictive analytics setting, including for a recent graduate or someone who is looking to start their career in forecasting.

Requirements

Graduation from a 4-year college or university with major coursework in a relevant field, such as mathematics/statistics/economics or any degree that included major coursework in statistical/data analysis.
Experience with data analysis tools.
Strong analytical skills with experience in data analysis and/or statistical modeling.
Knowledge of statistical software (such as SAS or R) and/or forecasting software.
Experience with Excel, including linking multiple worksheets and use of pivot tables.
Strong attention to detail and the ability to work independently.
Excellent communication and collaboration skills.

Nice To Haves

Experience with scientific research methods, principles, and techniques; of statistical concepts, methods, and their application to research analysis; of forecasting methods and their application to policy planning and budgeting; of database analysis and query methods and application to further research or forecasting.
Significant experience in Microsoft Excel, including the development of complex pivot tables and the linking of multiple complex spreadsheets.
Experience utilizing statistical software or other data analysis tools such as SAS, R, SQL and Power BI.
Experience in communicating and collaborating effectively, both orally and in writing, including the communication of research results/forecasts to a non-technical audience.
Experience with public policy or health care policy, and knowledge of the legislative policy process.
Experience effectively organizing and managing multiple projects and meeting project deadlines while working under pressure and with minimal supervision.
Experience analyzing and querying large data sets, and knowledge of query and database systems and tools.
Experience establishing and maintaining effective working relationships with individuals across a broad range of organizational position and technical knowledge.

Responsibilities

Develops complex statistical models, such as time series models, using SAS or other software, including Excel, to forecast HHS programs and evaluate the performance of such models.
Maintains and updates complex spreadsheets on a continual basis and identifies opportunities for improvement.
Pulls and analyzes historical data on a monthly basis to identify and escalate anomalies and to ensure appropriateness for use in forecasting.
Provides reports to management, the Legislative Budget Board, and others, on a monthly or quarterly basis, on the performance of models, as well as trends seen in the data.
Performs ad-hoc queries and runs simulations on request.
Other duties as assigned.