REMOTE - Actuarial Forecasting Lead / Principal Actuary | C2H

TMS LLC•New York, NY

6d•Remote

About The Position

The Principal Actuary is a senior individual-contributor specialist who develops an integrated quantitative risk framework connecting insurance-driven mobile-device claims, rapidly depreciating inventory assets, and future physical supply and disposition commitments. The role translates uncertainty in demand, recoverable value, and market conditions into actionable risk-management decisions. It is a hands-on modeling position with no direct reports, combining credentialed actuarial expertise in insurance claims and exposures with practical experience valuing physically delivered forwards, optional-volume agreements, or comparable structured physical supply arrangements. Physical settlement is the immediate focus; potential cash settlement is a longer-term capability. The role builds and validates probabilistic claims-frequency, cohort, and exposure models; produces calibrated, time-phased demand forecasts; models inventory depreciation and financial risk; and evaluates physically settled contracts and inventory portfolio decisions. It develops reproducible Python and SQL models, documents model governance, and communicates actuarial and valuation findings across business functions. The position serves as the senior technical authority for actuarial and risk valuation methodology, mentors colleagues, and may coordinate cross-functional working groups, but has no people-management responsibility or independent purchase, trade, or reserve-approval authority. The engagement is listed as 12 months C2H and remote in the USA.

Requirements

Hold an active professional actuarial credential: ACAS, FCAS, ASA, FSA, or recognized international actuarial equivalent. A CERA designation alone does not replace the base actuarial credential.
Demonstrated hands-on professional experience developing or materially validating insurance claims-frequency, exposure-based, or comparable insurance predictive-risk models.
Demonstrated hands-on experience valuing or pricing physically delivered forward, offtake, volume-flex, commodity, or asset supply contracts with meaningful delivery obligations or embedded optionality; theoretical coursework alone is insufficient.
At least 8 years of relevant experience spanning actuarial modeling, enterprise or asset risk, physical-market contract economics, and quantitative decision support.
Bachelor's degree in actuarial science, statistics, mathematics, quantitative finance, economics, engineering, or a closely related discipline.
Advanced stochastic simulation, financial risk modeling, calibration, sensitivity analysis, tail-risk measurement, and evaluation of correlated exposure.
Strong hands-on Python and SQL proficiency, including the ability to design models, independently inspect model code, and explain methods and commercial implications.
Demonstrated ability to work with incomplete market data, communicate uncertainty, and navigate cross-functional decisions with strong ethical judgment.

Nice To Haves

CERA or advanced enterprise-risk/financial-risk credential in addition to a base actuarial credential.
Experience in mobile devices, electronics resale, inventory financing, physical commodities, or another market with steep depreciation and limited liquidity.
Experience with risk-adjusted optimization, supply chain planning, repair operations, or secondary-market pricing.
Familiarity with inventory valuation accounting and derivative accounting review processes, while recognizing Finance and Accounting as decision owners.
Experience implementing governed enterprise quantitative models and collaborating with commercial supply or procurement teams.

Responsibilities

Build and validate probabilistic claims-frequency, cohort, and exposure models using insured-device populations, claims history, policy conditions, product mix, device age, churn, and external drivers.
Produce calibrated time-phased demand distributions by client, program, model family, and horizon; distinguish insured claims incidence from repair, replacement, substitution, and SKU-level fulfillment outcomes.
Backtest assumptions, explain forecast error, and partner with Data Science to translate predicted claims into decision-ready forecasts.
Model depreciation, residual values, recoverability, liquidation discounts, price volatility, liquidity, obsolescence, and concentration across mobile-device inventory.
Assess the joint impact of claims, future supply, secondary-market prices, repair yields, and inventory holdings using stochastic scenarios, Monte Carlo simulation, expected loss, tail-risk metrics, and stress tests.
Provide forward-looking risk estimates and evidence for Finance-owned monthly inventory reserve assessments, distinguishing economic-risk outputs from accounting measurements.
Price and assess physically settled forward purchases and sales, structured supply or offtake agreements, volume-flex commitments, and deliverable purchase/sale options.
Model strike or delivery prices, optional quantities, exercise timing, specifications, grading, counterparty performance, delivery terms, and embedded optionality; compare contract economics to spot transactions and inventory carry.
Partner with Procurement, Treasury, Legal, and Accounting on risk controls and commercial structures; support exploration of cash-settled products only after adequate benchmark and governance capabilities exist.
Integrate demand and market-value simulations to evaluate risk-adjusted buy, hold, repair, transfer, sell, and hedge decisions at model-family and portfolio levels.
Quantify working capital, stockout exposure, purchasing premiums, expected depreciation, and tail-risk tradeoffs to propose practical exposure limits and hedging thresholds.
Write reproducible Python and SQL models and document data lineage, parameters, validation, backtesting, assumption changes, and model limitations.
Coordinate with the Forecasting Lead on integrated work-product quality while retaining ownership of actuarial methodology, assumptions, and specialist model judgments.
Establish common risk terminology, influence planning and procurement decisions without direct authority, and help develop the enterprise inventory-risk methodology.
Communicate complex probability and valuation findings to Supply Chain, Finance, Actuarial, Risk, and executive stakeholders.
Mentor colleagues and potentially coordinate cross-functional working groups; provide quantitative recommendations influencing inventory working capital, economic risk limits, contract valuation, and reserve inputs.