Urgent Remote Role: Actuarial Forecasting Lead | Remote | 12-15 years experience

TMS LLC • Jersey City, NJ

4d • Remote

About The Position

The Actuarial Forecasting Lead will use knowledge of claims behavior, loss development, and the financial performance of insurance and protection products to strengthen claims projections, loss estimates, and actuarial modeling capabilities. The role works closely with actuarial, finance, technology, claims, underwriting, supply chain, data science, and engineering teams. It focuses on forecasting warranty claims, device failures, replacement demand, and related costs, and on ensuring forecast outputs support supply chain planning.

This is a remote USA role with a 12-month contract-to-hire duration and an ASAP start. The position requires 12–15 years of experience. A bachelor's or master's degree in Actuarial Science, Statistics, Mathematics, or a related quantitative discipline is required. Professional actuarial qualifications or progress toward certification are advantageous but not mandatory.

Requirements

• 12–15 years of experience.
• Strong experience in actuarial modeling, claims frequency and severity analysis, loss ratio projections, and claims cost estimation.
• Understanding of extended warranty, device protection, service contract, or specialty insurance products.
• Experience in claims reserving, loss development analysis, and ultimate loss projections.
• Hands-on experience building and reviewing actuarial models using historical claims experience, exposure data, product mix, and cost assumptions.
• Understanding of repair and replacement costs, claim incidence rates, product failure patterns, and their effects on loss projections.
• Experience with actuarial and analytical tools.
• Experience working with actuarial, claims, underwriting, and finance teams.
• Practical experience in actuarial modeling, claims forecasting, and applying actuarial projections to business planning.
• Bachelor's or master's degree in Actuarial Science, Statistics, Mathematics, or a related quantitative discipline.

Nice To Haves

• Exposure to statistical modeling and AI/ML techniques applied to claims and loss estimation.
• Professional actuarial qualifications or progress toward actuarial certification.

Responsibilities

• Review existing actuarial forecasting models, methodologies, and assumptions used to project warranty claims, device failures, and replacement demand.
• Analyze historical claims, failure rates, product behavior, and repair and replacement patterns to identify factors influencing future claims volumes.
• Assess the reliability of actuarial forecasts and identify gaps in modeling approaches, data quality, and assumptions.
• Evaluate and recommend statistical, actuarial, and predictive modeling techniques to improve forecast accuracy.
• Work with actuarial, supply chain, data science, and engineering teams to improve forecasting models and ensure outputs meet supply chain planning needs.
• Validate forecast results through actual-versus-expected analysis, back-testing, and scenario analysis.
• Lead functional discussions, model validation, and business acceptance of the forecasting solution.

What This Job Offers

• Job Type: Full-time
• Career Level: Senior