Senior Manager, Risk & Fraud Analytics

Trustly•San Francisco, CA

1d•$250,000 - $280,000•Hybrid

About The Position

Risk & Fraud Analytics sits in Trustly's Portfolio Risk Management organization, alongside Risk Management and Risk Solutions. The team quantifies the business impact of risk decisions and is responsible for attributing every dollar of loss and investigating the fraud patterns. In addition, this team provides loss forecasts and quantifies a loss and approval number on a proposed rule or threshold change. You will lead the team behind loss attribution, loss pattern discovery across all return types, return rate monitoring, recovery strategy, loss forecasting and merchant collateral sizing. You will produce the monthly loss view and the forecasted loss and approval impact on every proposed rule, threshold and non-standard deal term.

Requirements

8+ years in payments, lending or banking risk and fraud analytics, including at least 3 years managing analysts.
Exceptional analytical judgment to help frame the right question, identify the right data and create analysis design to find answers.
Fraud investigation experience, and the ability to guide analysts through one: set the hypothesis, find the pattern across a group of cases, and hold the evidence to a standard.
Fluency with the methods this work runs on: segmentation, cohort analysis and pattern detection across large transaction datasets.
Loss forecasting experience with cohort loss emergence, vintage curves or roll rates, and explaining variance to plan.
Experience owning a loss number that Finance and commercial teams both work from, including the monthly reporting cycle behind it.
Depth in ACH or card loss economics, including return code families and recovery rates.
Experience quantifying a rule or threshold change before its implementation and reporting the outcome afterward.
Ability to bring a recommendation to a risk committee and explain the assumptions behind it.

Nice To Haves

Degree in a quantitative field. A master's degree or MBA is a plus.
Experience with guaranteed payments, credit or any product where the provider carries the loss.
Exposure to fraud typologies such as first party misuse, account takeover and synthetic identity.
Experience with gaming, telco, utilities, insurance or financial services portfolios.
Python for analysis and modeling.
Familiarity with NACHA rules for ACH and Payments Canada rules for EFT.

Responsibilities

Lead the risk and fraud analytics team across loss reporting, investigations, recovery analysis and loss forecasting.
Attribute loss to return code family, merchant, vertical, rail and guarantee tier, and to the rule or score band that allowed the transaction.
Produce the monthly loss report and the merchant loss scorecards for the risk management and commercial teams.
Quantify the loss avoided and the approval rate cost of each proposed rule, threshold or non-standard deal term before it is implemented, and report the outcome against that forecast once it is live.
In partnership with risk operations, investigate loss patterns across unauthorized, administrative and funding-related returns, quantify the exposure, and share the findings with Risk Data Science and the Risk Leads.
Forecast portfolio loss against plan, and explain the variance by merchant, user segment, vertical, rail and guarantee tier mix.
Forecast which merchants and segments are moving toward a return rate limit, explain the drivers, and support the risk compliance team in the response to our banking partners.
Set the recovery strategy: which returns are worth contesting, and the expected recovery by return code family and merchant.
Give an independent, data-based view of merchant and segment performance, including how approved merchant cohorts performed against what the underwriting criteria predicted.
Maintain expected loss rates and cost per decision by merchant, vertical and guarantee tier, and present loss performance and forecast variance to the Risk Committee and Finance.