Scientist, Plume Modeling and Forecasting

Reflective•San Francisco, CA

8h•$130,000 - $160,000•Remote

About The Position

Reflective is a global, non-profit research organization aiming to accelerate the pace of sunlight reflection research. We equip the world with the data and tools needed to make informed decisions about sunlight reflection. This role focuses on studying stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) through modeling and assessing the feasibility of small-scale outdoor experiments. The modeling work includes AIDE-SAI, a linked set of machine-learning emulators that simulates SAI end to end. This position will lead plume forecasting for balloon-based tracer campaigns and build Reflective’s own forecasting capability for field studies.

Requirements

PhD in atmospheric science, fluid dynamics, or a closely related field, or equivalent research experience.
Experience running high-resolution or large-eddy simulations of dispersing material (plumes, tracers, or reacting flows) and comparing them against measurements.
Hands-on forecasting or mission-science experience on an airborne or balloon field campaign: planning flights from ensemble forecasts and making real-time calls during them.
Comfortable in Python and, ideally, Fortran on high-performance computing systems
Ability to state clearly what a model result does and does not support, and to write it down so others can act on it.
Excellent written and verbal communication skills, especially with mixed scientific, engineering, and non-technical audiences.
Creative and attached to outcomes, not process — constantly looking for new paths to the destination and excited to switch gears if there’s a faster, better way to get something done.
Low ego, and a proven track record for working well across disciplines and with external partners.
Passionate about Reflective’s mission.

Nice To Haves

Experience with JAX or other differentiable modeling frameworks.
Stratospheric experience is helpful but not required.
Formal people-management experience - this role leads technical work and coordinates a team, but is not required to be anyone’s formal manager.

Responsibilities

Lead plume forecasting for balloon-based tracer campaigns run with external partners, working within the partner’s data assimilation and forecasting process while developing in-house capabilities.
Develop and evaluate plume forecasting capabilities over the 24- to 72-hour horizons a potential field study would require, documenting performance limits and their implications for feasibility.
Quantify forecast uncertainty well enough to plan against it: where the ensemble spread puts the plume, how that spread grows with lead time, and what it implies for search patterns and instrument settings.
Translate forecast results into requirements for the observing team, including viewing geometry, altitude, timing, and expected plume extent for daytime visualization systems.
Model detailed plume evolution to support numerical experiments that test candidate observing suites and sampling cadences at realistic density and instrument fidelity.
Verify forecasts from each tracer campaign against what was observed and report plainly where they failed.
Own Reflective’s plume-scale modeling: large-eddy and plume-resolving simulations of injected material from release through dispersion, covering the regime the global emulators cannot resolve.
Turn plume-scale results into inputs the global framework can use: dilution rates, an effective source term, and a parameterization of plume-scale effects as a function of background conditions.
Serve as the multi-scale team’s point of contact for the experiment team on plume-scale questions: what the modeling can predict today, what it can’t, and what observations could settle.
Should a field study proceed, serve as mission scientist: real-time forecast updates, go/no-go input, and direction to pilots and instrument operators on where to sample.