Operations Research Analyst

CAPE•Washington, DC

1d•Onsite

About The Position

The Cost Assessment and Program Evaluation (CAPE) organization is hiring Operations Research Analysts for its Strategic Analysis and Analytic Innovation Division (SAID), within the Analysis and Innovation Deputate. CAPE provides objective, analysis-based advice to the Secretary and Deputy Secretary of War. SAID maintains CAPE’s analytical methods and standards, develops analytical tools, reviews the rigor of analyses, and contributes methods and standards to the Department’s Analysis Working Group. Its work spans experimental design, exploratory modeling and scenario discovery, optimization and decision analysis, statistical inference and forecasting, structured elicitation, wargaming and campaign-analysis standards, and verification of AI-assisted analysis. The division also develops surrogate models and pre-built analytics for CAPE’s mission analysis environment. The announcement covers three roles: Methodologist (GS-12/13), who develops common analytical skills under a senior mentor; Senior Methodologist (GS-14/15), who applies the division’s common methods and owns a specialization in wargaming and campaign analysis, exploratory modeling and scenario discovery, emulation and surrogate modeling, optimization and operations research, or inference, forecasting and structured elicitation; and AI Specialist (GS-14/15), who identifies effective uses of AI in analysis and develops methods to verify AI outputs. AI-assisted products for senior leaders must be reviewed by a qualified person other than their developer. Work includes developing and validating standards for defensible analysis; creating, testing and documenting tools and models for analysts and for integration into the War Data Platform; maintaining a catalogue of mathematical models and algorithms and their valid-use conditions; conducting independent assurance reviews; and performing code-based analytics. Senior Methodologists also mentor junior staff. The position is full-time and permanent, located at the Pentagon in Arlington, Virginia. Applicants must be able to obtain and maintain a Top Secret/SCI clearance. The position is in the Schedule B Excepted Service.

Requirements

A degree in operations research from an accredited college or university, or at least 24 semester hours in a combination of operations research, mathematics, probability, statistics, mathematical logic, science, or subject-matter courses requiring substantial college-level mathematics or statistics; at least 3 of the 24 semester hours must be in calculus.
Quantitative mathematical and statistical reasoning appropriate to the grade, including experience applying and documenting quantitative methods and implementing analyses or tools in code.
Demonstrated experience in at least one specialized domain: wargaming and campaign analysis; exploratory modeling; emulation and surrogate modeling; mathematical optimization; statistical inference; or AI verification and validation.
Ability to collaborate with internal and external organizations, including academia, think tanks, defense laboratories, and international partners, to import and validate methods.
Ability to communicate complex mathematical concepts, scientific methods, and analytical limitations in concise plain language through written materials and oral presentations, including briefings to senior officials.
GS-12 Methodologist: Under senior analysts’ guidance, apply analytical, mathematical, or statistical methods to plan, coordinate, and execute study segments and communicate with colleagues; alternatively, a Ph.D. or equivalent doctoral degree.
GS-13 Methodologist: Apply statistical and operations-research methods to study segments under general direction; implement and test models in code; document methods, assumptions, and uncertainty; and communicate results to internal and external colleagues.
GS-14 Senior Methodologist or AI Specialist: Have experience equivalent to GS-13 independently developing, testing, or validating methods or tools; documenting assumptions, provenance, limitations, and uncertainty; and demonstrating advanced expertise in an announced specialization. AI Specialist applicants must have experience evaluating AI or machine-learning outputs for validity, bias, robustness, or adversarial failure.
GS-15 Senior Methodologist or AI Specialist: Have experience equivalent to GS-14 leading methodological development or independent assurance, establishing standards used by multiple study teams or organizations, providing authoritative consultation in a specialization, and communicating findings and limitations to senior decision-makers.
At least one year (12 months at 40 hours per week) of specialized experience equivalent to the next lower grade level is required for the grade sought, except that a Ph.D. or equivalent doctoral degree may satisfy the stated GS-12 qualification alternative.
Must be able to obtain and maintain a Top Secret/SCI clearance.
Must be a U.S. citizen.

Responsibilities

Develop, define, and validate study-design, statistical, and assurance standards for defensible analysis, including sound design, evidence, provenance, and explicit uncertainty.
Create, test, and document analytic tools and models for CAPE analysts and for integration and operation on the War Data Platform.
Develop and maintain a catalogue of mathematical models and algorithms for campaign and warfighting analysis, documenting the conditions under which each is valid.
Conduct independent assurance reviews of CAPE analyses before use by senior leaders, documenting compliance with standards, limitations, and unresolved uncertainties.
Apply verification protocols to AI-assisted work so that a product is not validated solely by its developer.
Conduct analysis and develop tools using programming or statistical software such as R, Python, MATLAB, or GAMS.
Mentor junior methodologists in methods, documentation, and assurance practice (GS-14/15).
For the wargaming and campaign-analysis specialization, set standards for wargames and campaign analyses, assess external products against those standards, build and run models of force interactions, and develop methods accounting for adaptive adversaries.
For the exploratory-modeling specialization, design ensemble experiments, sampling strategies, experiment frameworks, and discovery analytics; lead design and validation standards for the emulation layer, including out-of-domain detection and adaptive batch selection.
For the emulation and surrogate-modeling specialization, fit, document, and validate surrogate models against designed experiments and build pre-computed sensitivity, marginal-gain, tipping-point, feasibility, and trade-space analytics.
For the optimization and operations-research specialization, create decision framings, value models, utility functions, and optimization tools for evaluating complex defense portfolios.
For the inference, forecasting, and structured-elicitation specialization, design empirical research, forecasting, and structured elicitation methods to validate claims drawn from observed or sparse data.
For the AI specialist role, identify effective uses of AI and emerging technologies and develop, test, and institutionalize verification and validation methods for AI outputs.
Validate inputs, make substantive judgments, and approve final products when using AI or automation to support analytical tasks.