Ops Research - Economist

CAPE•Washington, DC

1d•Onsite

About The Position

The Cost Assessment and Program Evaluation (CAPE) office is hiring an economist for the Cross-Portfolio Analysis Division (CPAD), which connects defense strategy with program-level analysis and develops and stress-tests whole-program resourcing alternatives for senior Department of War leaders. The role focuses on industrial-base economics, economic warfare, and economic statecraft, integrating analysis of the Department’s and adversaries’ economic instruments with assessments of defense production, supply access, allied industrial participation, retaliation exposure, and the resources needed to meet strategic requirements. The economist will assess how the defense industrial base may need to transform to field prospective changes in capabilities or force structure, including required investment, lead time, incentives, productive capacity, and broad resource implications. The role also evaluates whether the programmed force can be built, sustained, and regenerated over the long run within plausible fiscal and industrial constraints. It draws on existing assessments from the Department’s industrial-base policy organizations and directs CPAD analysis of transformation, without duplicating standing assessments of fragility, single points of failure, capacity, or throughput. The analyst applies economic theory, econometric techniques, and quantitative modeling; contributes findings to recurring products for the Secretary and Deputy Secretary; works with the Strategic Analysis and Analytic Innovation Division (SAID) on methods and review standards; collaborates with federal agencies and research organizations; and reviews CPAD analyses for rigor, evidence, provenance, and stated uncertainty. At GS-14/15, the role also includes mentoring junior analysts. The position is full-time and permanent, located at the Pentagon in Arlington, Virginia, and requires the ability to obtain and maintain a Top Secret or Top Secret/SCI clearance.

Requirements

A degree in operations research from an accredited college or university, or at least 24 semester hours in a qualifying combination of operations research, mathematics, probability, statistics, mathematical logic, science, or subject-matter courses requiring substantial college-level mathematics or statistics; at least 3 of those hours must be in calculus.
Meet the specialized-experience qualifications for the applicable grade, or the stated GS-12 alternative of a Ph.D. or equivalent doctoral degree.
Quantitative-methods experience with econometrics, macroeconomic modeling, cost and production modeling, or capacity analysis, and the software used to perform those analyses.
Ability to collaborate with internal and external organizations to obtain data and test findings.
Ability to present economic analysis in concise written products and oral briefings for senior Department officials.
Experience using operations research techniques to analyze industrial capacity, production and cost economics, or defense industrial-base economics at the level of the whole base or a major sector, including changes in producers, capital investment, and capacity incentives.
GS-12 specialized experience: Under guidance, apply operations research and econometric methods to industrial-base, supply-chain, or economic-statecraft studies; prepare data and models; and draft analytic text, or meet the doctoral-degree alternative.
GS-13 specialized experience: Under general direction, apply operations research methodologies, statistical analysis, economic theory, and econometric methods to relevant questions; independently build and estimate quantitative models; document methods, assumptions, and uncertainty; and communicate technical results to colleagues.
GS-14 specialized experience: Independently frame, design, and lead quantitative operations research analyses focused on supply-chain vulnerabilities, industrial-capacity constraints, or economic-warfare impacts; develop optimization or simulation models; and present complete quantitative trade-off analyses to senior officials.
GS-15 specialized experience: Lead multidisciplinary studies of economic warfare, industrial transformation, or supply-chain mobilization; advise senior leaders on the quantitative and economic feasibility of strategic options; and integrate economic analysis with operational capability and corporate resource-allocation analysis.
Applicants must meet the applicable qualifications by the announcement closing date.
Must be able to obtain and maintain a Top Secret or Top Secret/SCI security clearance.

Nice To Haves

A Ph.D. in economics, finance, or a closely related quantitative field.
Doctoral research, professional experience, or demonstrated analytic interests in industrial organization, macroeconomics, the defense industrial base, econometrics, international trade, structural labor, public finance, or supply-chain resilience.
Understanding of the defense acquisition and production system.
Practical experience navigating, extracting, and analyzing complex acquisition, logistics, and industrial-base tracking datasets.
Ability to translate procurement, cost, and scheduling data into predictive models or decision-support tools for evaluating production and acquisition constraints.
Experience applying mathematical, statistical, or network-optimization methods to model economic statecraft, including sanctions, export controls, tariffs, investment restrictions, or supply-access measures, and their effects on defense production, allied industrial participation, and retaliation exposure.

Responsibilities

Assess the long-run effects of economic instruments used by the Department or adversaries on defense production, supply access, allied industrial participation, and the program’s exposure to retaliation.
Weigh the intended effects of economic instruments against the risks and unintended consequences they may create for the defense program.
Assess the industrial-base changes, investment, lead time, incentives, productive capacity, and resources needed to support prospective shifts in capabilities or force structure.
Evaluate whether the programmed force can be built, sustained, and regenerated over the long run within plausible fiscal and industrial constraints, drawing on current-base assessments from Department industrial-base policy organizations.
Integrate industrial-base and economic-statecraft findings into CPAD’s whole-program resourcing analysis and recurring products for senior Department officials.
Work with SAID to develop methods for economic-warfare and industrial-base analysis, subject to SAID’s validation and CAPE standards.
Collaborate with federal agencies and research organizations to evaluate the assumptions, evidence, and limitations of economic models used in CPAD analysis.
Review CPAD analyses for study design, evidence, provenance, and appropriate treatment of uncertainty.
Use and develop economic and econometric theory and quantitative models to analyze industrial capacity, cost, and economic exposure at the program level.
At GS-14/15, mentor junior analysts in analytical framing, methods, and writing for senior officials.