Head of Prediction Research

Aaru•New York, NY

1d•Onsite

About The Position

Aaru builds simulations of human behavior. Each simulation contains a population of agents, each representing a person who could plausibly exist in the real world and capable of making decisions within a modeled environment. Companies and institutions use these simulations to test consequential choices before committing, from product launches and policy changes to critical communications. Because the agents are simulated rather than recruited, they can reason through complex hypotheticals without fatigue or the response effects common in human studies. Prediction Research builds systems that estimate future or otherwise unknown outcomes from data. The work spans forecasts of specific events, likely behavior across a population, and conditional predictions that update as the available information changes. Some systems will work directly from structured data. Others will use agents to retrieve evidence, call tools, compare hypotheses, and reason through a problem before producing an estimate. As Head of Prediction Research, you will set the scientific direction for this work and lead it from early experiments through validated systems. You will decide which prediction problems matter, what evidence is needed to solve them, and which technical approaches merit sustained investment. Aaru's data organization will sit within this function, giving you responsibility for the data strategy and data products that support prediction across the company. This is a hands-on research leadership role. You will write code, design experiments, inspect individual failures, and work closely with researchers and engineers on the most important technical questions. You will also recruit and lead a small team capable of making progress on problems that do not yet have established methods or benchmarks.

Requirements

Developed an original research agenda in frontier machine learning, forecasting, probabilistic modeling, agentic systems, or an environment with a comparable bar for rigor and ambition.
Built predictive systems from messy, heterogeneous data and tested them against observed outcomes.
Comfortable moving between research strategy, statistical reasoning, model design, data design, implementation, and detailed error analysis.
Understand the strengths and failure modes of language models and can combine them effectively with structured data and quantitative methods.
Can turn a poorly specified prediction problem into a sequence of experiments that resolves the most important uncertainties.
Care deeply about calibration, temporal validity, selection effects, leakage, and performance under condition shift.
Led researchers or a major technical direction while continuing to contribute directly to the work.
Communicate results clearly and change direction when the evidence contradicts an attractive idea.
Want to build in person, in New York, at high speed.

Nice To Haves

Work in time-series modeling, econometrics, decision science, quantitative social science, recommender systems, risk modeling, or causal inference.
Experience with LLM agents, retrieval, tool use, post-training, synthetic environments, or inference-time scaling.
Experience building proprietary datasets, data products, acquisition programs, or learning systems that improve as outcomes resolve.
A record of research that improved an operational prediction system or changed a consequential product or business decision.
Experience recruiting and mentoring unusually strong researchers, research engineers, or data scientists.

Responsibilities

Define a focused research agenda for forecasting, behavioral prediction, calibration, and agentic prediction systems.
Build and test systems that combine language models with structured data, retrieval, tools, and quantitative methods.
Develop prediction methods from real-world records such as transactions, product usage, event histories, operational data, market data, and longitudinal outcomes.
Improve estimates of population behavior and how those behaviors change with a person's attributes, prior behavior, or surrounding context.
Determine when language-model reasoning or explicit agent simulation adds predictive signal beyond simpler statistical and machine learning approaches.
Establish Aaru's data strategy and lead the team responsible for acquiring, joining, cleaning, documenting, and serving research-quality data.
Create feedback loops in which resolved events and customer outcomes improve future systems while clean evaluation sets remain protected.
Design experiments with strong baselines and temporal holdouts, then test whether gains persist across domains, time periods, and populations.
Work with Population Research, Evaluation Research, and Simulation Engineering to turn validated methods into reliable simulation and product capabilities.
Communicate findings plainly, including negative results, unstable improvements, and cases where the evidence does not support a confident prediction.
Hire, mentor, and lead exceptional researchers, research engineers, and data specialists while remaining a direct contributor.