Forecast Analyst

MAT Holdings, Inc•Hawthorn Woods, IL

1d•$80,000 - $90,000

About The Position

The Forecast Analyst builds and maintains time series forecasting models, owns forecast accuracy, and translates demand insights into inventory and safety stock decisions. Working with Demand planning, Supply Chain, and customers, the role combines statistical modeling, SAP and Power BI analytics, and AI tools such as Claude to deliver reliable forecasts, protect fill rates, and communicate clearly with stakeholders.

Requirements

Time series forecasting methods, including statistical, and machine learning models.
Safety stock and inventory planning concepts, including service level targets, demand and lead time variability, reorder points, and fill rate drivers.
Forecast accuracy metrics (MAPE, WMAPE, bias, FVA) and root cause analysis techniques.
S&OP processes and cross-functional demand planning.
SAP ERP, Power BI, and advanced Excel; Python or R for modeling is a plus.
Working knowledge of AI assistants such as Claude and prompt engineering for analytics and business communication.
Strong communication and presentation skills for customer-facing and executive audiences.
Undergraduate degree in supply chain, engineering, statistics, Analytics or a related field.
1-2 years of supply chain planning experience in forecasting, S&OP, demand, and supply planning.

Nice To Haves

Python or R for modeling is a plus.

Responsibilities

Develop, test, and deploy time series forecasting models (e.g., Holt-Winter’s, ARIMA, Croston, and machine learning approaches) to predict demand at SKU, customer, and distribution center levels.
Research and prototype new forecasting methods, including demand segmentation and model-routing frameworks that match each SKU's demand pattern to the best-fit model.
Perform feature engineering and incorporate external drivers such as promotions, seasonality, POS trends, and new product introductions into forecast models.
Validate model performance through back testing and holdout analysis before production rollout.
Own and monitor forecast accuracy KPIs, including MAPE, WMAPE, bias, and forecast value add (FVA), and report on them regularly.
Conduct root cause analysis on forecast misses, backorders, and fill rate gaps, and implement corrective actions.
Maintain forecast hygiene by cleansing demand history, handling outliers, and adjusting for supply-constrained periods.
Continuously improve forecasting processes and reduce manual overrides through better statistical baselines.
Work closely with Operations and Supply Chain teams to translate demand forecasts into inventory, replenishment, and safety stock requirements.
Support S&OP by preparing demand plans, highlighting risks and opportunities, and driving consensus across functions.
Build and maintain safety stock models that account for demand variability, lead time variability, and target service levels.
Analyze lead time variability, inventory positions, and service levels to support fill rate and inventory targets.
Collaborate with key customer accounts to review POS data, order trends, and forecast alignment, and recommend forecast changes.
Communicate forecast assumptions, changes, and risks clearly to Sales, Marketing, Finance, and Operations.
Gather market intelligence from Sales and Marketing to enrich forecasts with qualitative inputs.
Extract and manage demand and inventory data from ERP systems (SAP) and build automated reporting and dashboards in Power BI and Excel.
Build repeatable analytical workflows that reduce manual effort and improve data reliability.
Document forecasting methodologies, model logic, and processes for transparency and knowledge sharing.
Use AI tools such as Claude to accelerate analysis, code development, data exploration, and documentation.
Write effective prompts to generate forecasting scripts, summarize account trends, draft stakeholder communications, and validate analytical logic.
Identify opportunities to integrate AI into forecasting and reporting workflows to improve speed and consistency, while reviewing all outputs for accuracy.