Economist Senior

Arizona Department of Administration • Phoenix, WA

3d • $51,625 - $85,000 • Hybrid

About The Position

The Arizona Office of Economic Opportunity (OEO) is committed to advancing Arizona's workforce and fostering opportunities for well-paying jobs. Collaborating with state, federal, local, tribal, educational, business, labor, and community partners, OEO serves as the state's workforce planning coordinator, conducts economic and demographic research, and provides employment and demographic analysis. OEO also supports the Arizona Finance Authority (AFA), ensuring streamlined financing for businesses, community infrastructure, and first-time home buyers. AFA prioritizes delivering affordable financing swiftly, serving as a one-stop resource for various financial needs to promote Arizona's growth and development.

Under the general direction of the Deputy Administrator (Division 2 Lead), the Economist Senior serves as a technical modeling and quantitative research lead responsible for engineering the labor market intelligence, data structures, and predictive frameworks powering the Rural Health Transformation Program (RHTP) and Rural Innovation Learning Network (RILN) dashboards. Operating within the Modeling and Forecasting Division, this position develops in-demand healthcare occupational selection algorithms, regional training-to-jobs models, and longitudinal outcome metrics to support healthcare workforce recruitment, training capacity expansion, and rural retention. This position performs fully programmatic research and modeling and does not perform grant administration, fiscal oversight, procurement, compliance monitoring, or administrative cost pool functions.

This position may offer the ability to work remotely, within Arizona, based upon the department's business needs and continual meeting of expected performance measures. The State of Arizona strives for a work culture that affords employees flexibility, autonomy, and trust. Across our many agencies, boards, and commissions, many State employees participate in the State’s Remote Work Program and are able to work remotely in their homes, in offices, and in hoteling spaces. All work, including remote work, should be performed within Arizona unless an exception is properly authorized in advance.

Requirements

• Advanced knowledge of econometric analysis, predictive modeling, composite index creation, and longitudinal program evaluation frameworks.
• Deep understanding of healthcare occupation classification systems (SOC), education programs (CIP), licensure databases, and rural health shortage metrics.
• Thorough knowledge of Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data programs, UI wage record linkages, and Integrated Data Systems (IDS) methodology.
• Advanced skill in programming languages (SAS, Python) and database automation tools for extracting, transforming, and modeling large datasets.
• Skill in structuring complex analytical output into clean, optimized dataset formats designed for web visualization tools and interactive APIs.
• Skill in writing clear methodology papers, data dictionaries, and technical briefs for agency leadership and peer economists.
• Ability to translate complex programmatic goals into mathematically sound, reproducible economic methodologies.
• Ability to collaborate seamlessly with Division 1 economists to ensure back-end modeling directly supports front-end participant engagement tools.
• Ability to enforce rigorous data quality checks, routine verification protocols, and ethical data privacy standards when handling individual wage and participant records.
• Bachelor's degree in Economics, Statistics, Data Analytics or a related field.
• Driver's License Requirements (if driving is an essential function).
• Must successfully complete the Electronic Employment Eligibility Verification Program (E-Verify).

Responsibilities

• Develop econometric models, threshold methodologies, and quantitative criteria to evaluate rural training capacity, clinical placement availability, and regional healthcare workforce shortages.
• Engineer supply and demand models for nursing and allied health occupations to identify regional educator gaps and inform training cohort expansion.
• Build data pipelines integrating educational completion records, credentialing data, and licensure information to track student progression through rural healthcare pipelines.
• Design statistical indicators and predictive frameworks to identify opportunities for provider upskilling, residency expansion, and preceptor network development.
• Formulate longitudinal evaluation models that link participant training rosters to UI wage records to analyze employment entry, wage growth, and retention within rural health settings.
• Evaluate regional labor market frictions (such as commute sheds, wage competitiveness, and turnover) to support provider retention modeling in designated shortage areas.
• Construct composite indices and scoring models that map local healthcare shortage severity against approved financial recruitment and retention incentives.
• Deliver data-driven inputs and quantitative scoring frameworks to help workforce boards and healthcare partners align financial resources with high-need rural occupations.
• Measure the statistical impact of workforce incentives on participant completion rates, rural employment placement, and long-term career advancement.
• Engineer and maintain back-end database architectures, data dictionaries, and automated output tables that power public-facing RILN dashboards and career pathway tools.
• Develop structured data feeds and API connections to ensure dashboard visualizations accurately display real-time labor market trends and regional workforce profiles.
• Formulate transparent documentation and methodology white papers detailing the quantitative logic underlying RHTP dashboard metrics.
• Collaborate dynamically with Division 1 (Applied Analysis) economists to ensure complex predictive outputs and econometric models are accurately formatted for stakeholder tools.
• Contribute to core Division 2 technical initiatives, including WIOA in-demand methodologies, long-term occupational projections, and training provider predictive evaluation models.
• Other duties as assigned as related to the position.

Benefits

• Sick leave
• Retirement plan
• Health and dental insurance
• Vacation with 10 paid holidays per year
• Life insurance and long-term disability insurance
• Optional employee benefits include short-term disability insurance, deferred compensation plans, and supplemental life insurance
• Paid Parental Leave program

What This Job Offers

• Job Type: Full-time
• Career Level: Senior