Senior Demand Forecasting Manager

Seint•St. George, UT

5h•Hybrid

About The Position

The Forecasting Manager owns Seint’s product demand forecasting, turning sales history, product performance, launch plans, promotional activity, and market trends into clear, data-driven inventory recommendations. This role is responsible for building and maintaining forecasts across new launches and existing products, monitoring SKU performance, and identifying opportunities to reduce stockouts and excess inventory. Working cross-functionally with Fulfillment, Finance, Product Innovation, and Marketing, the Forecasting Manager ensures inventory decisions are supported by reliable data while continuously improving forecast accuracy as actual performance and business needs evolve.

Requirements

3–5+ years in demand planning, inventory planning, or supply/demand forecasting, ideally in a consumer products or DTC environment
Hands-on experience with demand or inventory planning software, and strong Excel/spreadsheet modeling skills
Strong quantitative and analytical skills — comfortable building and defending a forecast model, not just running one someone else built
Experience managing SKU-level tiering and portfolio decisions (what to discontinue, rework, or reposition), not just top-line volume forecasting
Clear written and verbal communication — this role regularly presents forecasts and variance to Operations, Finance, and Product stakeholders
Comfortable working with incomplete or evolving data, and documenting assumptions clearly enough that others can challenge them
Must have demand planning expertise within fast-moving CPG — beauty or cosmetics experience specifically is strongly preferred within that

Nice To Haves

Experience forecasting for a business with a hybrid distribution model (e.g., DTC alongside an affiliate, ambassador, or independent-seller channel)
Experience managing forecasts through a major transition
Experience with international sourcing and the lead-time/tariff considerations that come with it
Experience working with Inventory Planner for building forecasting and variance dashboards

Responsibilities

Forecast order quantities for new product launches, rooted in historical performance of comparable items and from partnering cross-departmentally to understand launch ambitions, and support from different departments
Build seasonal demand forecasts that account for how different times of year drive different volume, including known high-volume moments on Seint's promotional calendar (e.g., BFCM)
Analyze how new colors, shades, and products will cannibalize or shift demand on existing inventory, and adjust reorders proactively
Work with Product Innovation on expected performance for each new product against the product roadmap, and reconcile those expectations against what the data supports
Maintain a rolling forecast for existing product and update it as actuals come in
Provide order recommendations to the Fulfillment team rather than placing orders directly
Categorize every item into A, B, or C tiers based on sales, and maintain the tiering as performance shifts
Deliver a quarterly review of poor sellers with a recommendation on each: discontinue, rework, reposition, or leave alone
Track forecast accuracy against actuals and report on variance
Run post-launch reviews on new products: forecast versus actual, and what to apply next time
Document assumptions behind each forecast so they can be challenged and improved
Incorporate return rates by product, since a high-return item's sell-through overstates real demand
Account for planned promotions, marketing pushes, and Artist/Affiliate activity that will move volume
Account for discontinuations and product transitions, including sell-down plans for items being replaced
Factor in supplier lead times and sourcing risk, including international shipping and duty/tariff volatility, when building order-timing recommendations
Partner closely with Fulfillment, since this role's forecast is the direct input to Fulfillment's manufacturer, vendor, and warehouse ordering decisions
Partner with Finance on COGS forecasting and how demand assumptions flow into margin and cash planning
Partner with Product Innovation on launch timing and expected volume for new products, and with Marketing on how planned promotions will move demand