Sr. Data Scientist (Loss Forecasting)

Achieve-posted 4 days ago
$150,000 - $185,000/Yr
Full-time • Mid Level
Hybrid • San Mateo, CA
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We are looking for an experienced, hands-on Sr. Data Scientist / Loss Forecasting Analyst (minimum of 3 years’ relevant experience) who is comfortable working with large data sets, coding in SQL and Python and translating forecasting results into actionable insights for business stakeholders while working closely with the capital markets team and investors. In this role you will maintain and enhance our loss forecasting methodologies/models/processes for unsecured personal loans, perform vintage & segment forecasting, scenario and stress testing, and collaborate cross-functionally with marketing, capital markets, BI, finance, and product teams. The candidate should have an eye for automating/streamlining processes and creating workflows that are easily repeatable/replicable. You will be a key contributor to our risk management processes.

  • Maintain and enhance loss forecasting methodologies/models/processes (e.g., for loan charge-offs, delinquencies, roll rates, recoveries) for unsecured personal loan portfolios.
  • Extract, clean and manipulate large data sets using SQL and Python; build pipelines and analytics to support forecasting and reporting.
  • Perform exploratory data analysis (EDA) to identify portfolio trends, drivers of loss performance (vintage, credit bands, borrower attributes, macro factors) and provide insight into model deviations.
  • Maintain forecast deliverables: monthly/quarterly loss forecasts by vintage and segment, stress and scenario analyses, sensitivity testing.
  • Provide commentary and insight to business stakeholders on forecast outcomes, assumptions, model health, and emerging portfolio risks.
  • Automate reporting, dashboards and pipelines to streamline loss forecasting workflows and improve efficiency and accuracy.
  • Document model methodologies, assumptions, data sources and results in clear, audit-ready format consistent with risk governance requirements.
  • Participate in governance and review of forecasting methodology, model validation support and liaise with external auditors or regulators where needed.
  • Continuously identify opportunities to improve forecasting accuracy, data infrastructure, modeling techniques, and integrate advanced statistical or machine-learning techniques as appropriate.
  • Minimum of 3 years’ hands-on experience in loss forecasting (credit risk, loan portfolios, unsecured consumer loans or similar). For example, roles in forecasting charge-offs, delinquencies, vintage analysis, roll-rates, etc.
  • Strong programming skills in Python and SQL for data analysis, modeling and automation.
  • Strong skills with data visualization tools like Tableau and AI tools that materially improve productivity
  • Solid background in Probability & Statistics
  • Experience with forecasting methodologies: time-series analysis, vintage modeling, roll-rate curves, survival analysis or logistic regression in consumer credit risk context.
  • Strong analytical and critical thinking skills; ability to interpret results, identify trends, draw actionable insights and communicate clearly to non-technical stakeholders.
  • Excellent documentation skills and experience in preparing audit-ready deliverables (methodologies, assumptions, model validation support).
  • Master’s degree in Economics, Statistics, Mathematics, Data Science or a related quantitative discipline (PhD preferred but not required).
  • Experience in unsecured consumer lending (personal loans or credit cards) or fintech lending environment.
  • Experience with forecasting for allowance/reserve processes (e.g., CECL, IFRS9) or stress-testing.
  • Experience working in the GCP environment.
  • Passion for fintech, agile environment, ability to work both independently and in a collaborative, fast-paced team.
  • Hybrid and remote work opportunities
  • 401 (k) with employer match
  • Medical, dental, and vision with HSA and FSA options
  • Competitive vacation and sick time off, as well as dedicated volunteer days
  • Access to wellness support through Employee Assistance Program, Talkspace, and fitness discounts
  • Up to $5,250 paid back to you on eligible education expenses
  • Pet care discounts for your furry family members
  • Financial support in times of hardship with our Achieve Care Fund
  • A safe place to connect and a commitment to diversity and inclusion through our six employee resource groups
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